The Election Impact
Results for the General Election 2019 will be announced on Thursday, 23rd May. Voting for the election took place in seven phases – from 11th April to 19th May. Generally, there are two types of surveys conducted by various organizations during elections – Opinion Polls and Exit Polls.
Opinion polls are the surveys which are conducted before the first phase of voting starts, by asking voters about their preferences.
Exit polls are conducted after every phase of the election. In Exit polls, voters are directly asked whether they voted for political party A or B. Given that questions under exit polls are asked to voters after they have cast their votes, it is believed to be more accurate than opinion polls.
Exit polls are conducted throughout the different phases of election, but the results are only announced once voting for all the phases are over. India has a total of 543 seats and any party/coalition having more than 272 seats will be able to form the government. Below are the predictions of different exit polls, as of Sunday night.
| Agency | BJP+ | Congress+ | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times Now - VMR | 306 | 132 | 104 |
| C-Voter | 287 | 128 | 127 |
| ABP Nielsen | 267 | 127 | 148 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 305 | 124 | 113 |
| News Nation | 286 | 122 | 134 |
| Today's Chanakya | 350 | 95 | 97 |
| Republic - Double exit poll | 305 | 124 | 114 |
| News X - Neta | 242 | 164 | 137 |
| India Today - My Axis | 352 | 92 | 95 |
| Average | 300 | 123 | 118 |
Based on these numbers, it looks likely that the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) might again be able to form a stable government at the centre. A BJP-led stable union government is expected to be a favourable outcome for the markets as it removes political uncertainty and markets love stability.
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- On the other hand, if you feel markets are going to be very volatile in the near future and Exit Poll predictions might not turn out to be true, you can protect your investments against market volatility by investing with the All Weather Investing smallcase.
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Markets update
Benchmark indices which had been volatile all week, ended the week in green ahead of exit poll outcomes on Sunday.
Nifty closed up 1.14% at 11,407.2 and Sensex closed up 1.25% at 37,930.8. Inflation for April 2019 increased by 2.9%, marginally above the street estimate of 2.7%. Wholesale Price Index stood at 3.07% in April 2019.
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Passive investing options in India
What are the types of passive investing options available? Do Fixed Deposits beat inflation? ETFs, Mutual Funds or smallcases? Find out in the 3rd video of our Passive Investing series.
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