October marked a strong comeback for Indian markets, with the Nifty 50 up 4.6%, IPOs hitting record highs, and corporate earnings holding steady even as the IMF flagged a dim global outlook. Precious metals swung wildly, but India’s economic resilience and balance sheet strength kept optimism alive.

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Markets Last Month 📆

A blockbuster month for Indian markets and listings, October proved that confidence at home can thrive even as the world slows.

TL;DR

1. Markets in October: Rally Returns to Dalal Street

October was the best month for Indian equities after March as the headline Nifty 50 index gained over 4.6%. This was heavily lifted by Nifty Bank, which gained 5.75% on the back of a fresh wave of reforms from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Other sectors that shone during the month included the likes of Nifty Realty, Nifty Oil & Gas, and Nifty Metal. The month of October surely has to be a turning point for the course of the Indian markets. Not just from the performance perspective but also from the sentiment perspective. October kick-started the much-anticipated Q2 earnings, and so far, to be fair, the results have been pretty much at par with street expectations. Well, you would take that, as no bad news is good news at the moment, given the uncertain times we live in. 

2. Listing Fever Hits Record Highs

October 2025 cemented India’s status as a premier global destination for public listings, culminating in the busiest month ever recorded for mainboard IPOs. The primary market witnessed an unprecedented deluge, with 14 companies raising over ₹46,000 crore in a single month. This activity was anchored by heavyweight issues, including the ₹15,512 crore offering from Tata Capital and the ₹11,607 crore listing from LG Electronics India. Cumulatively, 89 IPOs have successfully raised more than ₹1.38 lakh crore in calendar year 2025, as per market data. This frenzy is no longer predominantly fueled by foreign capital; rather, it’s a structural shift driven by robust domestic inflows. With systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions consistently hovering near ₹30,000 crore monthly, the financialization of household savings has created a deep, localised capital pool, giving issuers the confidence to launch offerings of significant scale and velocity.

3. Silver’s Surge, Gold’s Pause

The precious metals market showed a clear split in October, putting the idea of gold as a “safe haven” to the test. Silver saw a drastic jump, with prices soaring 22% in less than two weeks. This rally was not purely speculative; it had strong backing from a major supply-demand imbalance. A 42% drop in silver imports during 2025 coincided with rising industrial demand from the electric vehicle and solar sectors, all while India’s festive season demand peaked. After this surge, silver prices fell sharply in the second half of the month, nearly wiping out the initial October gains. Gold also had an impressive run in the first half but corrected itself for a breather. Still, the long-term strategy for accumulating gold remains strong. The World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 report confirmed that global central banks kept buying, adding 220 net tonnes to their reserves, which is a 10% increase from the previous year. This indicates a strong institutional belief in gold’s lasting value, despite short-term fluctuations.

4. IMF Cautions on Global Slowdown

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2025 World Economic Outlook, titled “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim,” delivered a sobering message to policymakers. The report formally downgraded its global GDP projections, forecasting a slowdown from 3.3% growth in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. This sluggish trajectory is attributed to a landscape fracturing under “greater protectionism and fragmentation,” which is stifling trade and investment. While headline inflation is expected to continue its global decline, the IMF explicitly warned that price pressures remain stubbornly “above target in the United States,” complicating the monetary policy pivot for the world’s largest economy. The balance of risks is unequivocally tilted to the downside. The Fund highlighted prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade barriers, and acute fiscal vulnerabilities as primary threats that could derail the fragile global recovery.

5. India’s Balance Sheets Strengthen

The Reserve Bank’s October bulletin offers a granular look beneath the headline growth, painting a picture of profound corporate sector transformation. The bulletin’s “State of the Economy” article highlights a significant strengthening of corporate balance sheets, a trend that is now providing a robust buffer against global volatility. An analysis of listed non-government, non-financial companies shows a remarkable post-pandemic revival, with aggregate net profits surging to ₹7.1 trillion in 2024-25 from ₹2.5 trillion in 2020-21. This has pushed net profit margins up from 7.2% to 10.3% over the same period. This profitability has been used to deleverage aggressively; the bulletin notes that the interest coverage ratio for manufacturing firms hit a robust 7.7 on average in the post-COVID period, reflecting formidable debt-servicing capacity.

Windmill Wisdom 🦉

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Rebalance Completed 🧮

Our quant-based and asset allocation model smallcases were reviewed and updated. Head over to the smallcase app, check out the smallcase of your choice, > Go to Stocks & Weights tab and scroll down to download the Portfolio Report to view the rationale behind the rebalance.

List of smallcases rebalanced

• Quality Bluechip Quant
• Growth Multicap Quant
• Quality Smallcap Quant
• Value & Momentum – Asset Allocation Model
• GEM-Q – Asset Allocation Model

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