March 2026 was the month geopolitical risk stopped being a talking point and became a portfolio problem. The Israel-Iran-US conflict escalated sharply, disrupting air corridors, triggering a near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and sending crude oil surging past $119/bbl. The rupee hit a record low, India VIX doubled, and domestic rate-sensitive sectors bore the brunt of a broad-based sell-off. Against this backdrop, governance cracks surfaced in Indian banking, aviation policy was forced to adapt in real time, and India’s renewable energy sector quietly posted one of its most consequential months in years.

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Markets Last Month 🗓️

1. A Month the Market Would Rather Forget

March’26 was easily one of the most turbulent months for Indian equities in recent memory. Israel-Iran-US conflict, which severely disrupted air travel via the Middle East and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, stoked fears of energy supply shocks and resulted in a broad-based market sell-off.

Nifty 50 dropped by 9.4%, with Nifty 500 following with a 9.3% drop. Mid and Small caps did moderately better, with the former down 8.5% and the latter down 7.7%.

India Vix measures the expected annualised volatility of the Nifty 50 over the next 30 days and is the best tool for capturing investor anxiety. It surged more than 100% during the month, closing at 27.89, its highest level in 5 years. This indicates that investors are not viewing the sell-off as a short-term blip but are pricing in sustained uncertainty going forward.

Foreign portfolio investors continued to pull out of Indian markets; net outflows during the month were ₹1,77,775. Total net outflows so far during the calendar year are ₹1,91,122 crore.

At the sectoral level, rate-sensitive, domestically oriented sectors were the worst affected. Nifty Bank, Nifty Realty, Nifty Auto and Nifty Financial Services were among the worst performers, all dropping between 16-17%. 

2. How the Energy Shock Travelled Through India

Disruptions across the Middle East, including a near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a surge in crude oil prices from ~$80/bbl at the start of the month to a peak of $119/bbl, while LNG supply shocks proved even more disruptive. After Qatar halted LNG production, GAIL, Petronet LNG, Gujarat Gas and Mahanagar Gas declared force majeure. This curtailed the supply of industrial gas and disrupted production across the aluminium, chemicals, and ceramics sectors. Companies including Hindalco, Manali Petrochemicals, and Balaji Amines reported shutdowns, while logistics bottlenecks left ~45,000 containers stranded and sharply raised export costs.

The macro shock was quickly transmitted to financial markets: the rupee depreciated to a record low of ~₹94.9/USD, and bond yields rose throughout the month amid fears of rising inflation, an expected repo rate increase, and macro uncertainty. The government’s announcement of borrowing of ₹8.2 lakh crore next month also contributed to the rise of bond yields.

Despite global tensions, gold prices dropped by more than 12% during the month, mainly under pressure from rising US bond yields and a stronger US Dollar.

Overall, the month reflected a classic transmission of a geopolitical energy shock into currency weakness, industrial disruption, and a broad-based equity market correction. We mapped out exactly what this means for your portfolio →

3. Indian Aviation’s Most Turbulent Month Since the Pandemic

After the December meltdown at Indigo, heads had to roll, and the month started with just that. In the 2nd week of March, Peter Elbers, the CEO of Indigo, resigned.

By mid-March, the West Asia crisis had reached a boiling point. As explosions rocked Dubai, UAE airport authorities asked airlines to curtail operations. Both Air India and Air India Express had to scrap almost all flights to Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. On the Dubai route, airlines had to operate just 1 return flight from Delhi, leaving thousands of passengers in the lurch.

In addition to curtailed operations on profitable routes, airlines also had to contend with soaring prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) as crude oil prices breached $110 per barrel levels. Long-haul flights to the West were forced to take circuitous routes to avoid the Middle East, burning more of the expensive fuel.

On March 23rd, aid finally arrived in the form of the Ministry of Civil Aviation removing domestic airfare caps. The caps had earlier limited ticket prices between ₹7,500 and ₹18,000. The removal allowed airlines to pass on soaring operating costs to passengers. By the end of the month, the finance minister, Ms Sitharaman, announced a hike in export duties on ATF to curb exports and ensure sufficient domestic fuel availability for the industry. In addition, excise duties on petrol and diesel were also slashed to cushion the impact of high oil prices. 

4. Governance stress in the financial sector

The Indian banking sector saw an eventful March, and not in a good way.

The month started with the government scrapping the long-awaited majority stake sale of IDBI Bank after receiving only unviable bids. The government and LIC were seeking to sell a combined 60.7% stake, along with management control. Markets reacted poorly to the news, with the bank’s stock dropping by ~46% over the month.

Last week in Feb ’26, the CEO of FINO Payments Bank, Rishi Gupta, was arrested on charges of funnelling funds linked to online and gaming networks. Stock prices have dropped by ~33% since then, and the Enforcement Directorate is likely to probe the matter. In Dec’ 25, Fino Payments Bank received in-principle approval from the Reserve Bank of India to convert into a small finance bank. The interim CEO has clarified that there is no impact on the approval and that the bank is preparing to transition.

On March 18, 2026, Atanu Chakraborty, the Part-Time Chairman of HDFC Bank, tendered a sudden resignation. His departure letter was uncharacteristically pointed for an institution of this stature, citing “ethical concerns” and stating that specific “happenings and practices” observed over the previous two years were inconsistent with his personal values. While the bank’s board expressed that they were “baffled” by the move—noting that Chakraborty provided no specific instances of governance lapses during his tenure—the market immediately interpreted the vagueness as a red flag. Even the RBI’s reaffirmation that HDFC Bank’s status as a Domestic Systemically Important Bank (D-SIB) is sound and that it has a competent team did not assuage the market, and the stock has dropped by ~12% since the news came out.

The RBI imposed substantial monetary fines totalling ₹ 2.1 crore on Union Bank of India, Central Bank of India, and Bank of India for regulatory non-compliance. We unpacked what this means for investors →

5. India’s Energy Scaling Up Quietly in a Noisy Month

During the month, India’s renewable energy sector saw solar capacity addition, a breakthrough in grid-scale storage and a commercial contract win in the green hydrogen space.

NTPC Green Energy was the month’s most active player, commissioning well over 500 MW of new solar capacity across Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. GAIL announced a 178 MW wind project in Maharashtra, while KPI Green Energy and Clean Max Enviro also expanded their portfolio.

The market has now begun to recognise Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as a viable commercial business rather than just a policy goal. This was exemplified by ACME Solar’s commissioning of 155 MW BESS capacity in Rajasthan. Simultaneously, the industry is also strengthening upstream manufacturing capability. Waaree Energies began construction of a 10GW ingot-wafer solar factory, while its subsidiary secured a 300 MW solar EPC contract. Solex Energy also secured 3.78 GW of module manufacturing capacity on the MNRE’s ALMM list.

Reliance Industries signed a landmark $3 billion, 15-year deal with Samsung C&T to supply green ammonia for export starting in late 2028. BPCL set a new benchmark for affordability, securing a green hydrogen supply contract at a record-low price of ₹279/kg. NEUEN entered the fray with a commitment to supply 10,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually to the Numaligarh refinery. We broke down the full Reliance playbook this month →

Windmill Wisdom 🧠

What the Hormuz crisis means for your portfolio
To understand how this geopolitical friction affects your long-term wealth and inflation, you need to see the full breakdown. Read here →

Sun Pharma’s Affordable Ozempic Moment and More
Sun Pharma is quietly building one of the most interesting multi-front stories in Indian pharma: a domestic GLP-1 play, a specialty global pipeline, and several simultaneous strategic bets. We break down what’s real and what’s priced in. Read here →

Full Throttle: Mahindra’s Most Consequential Chapter Yet
Nifty Auto fell 16% in March, but not every auto story is the same. Mahindra is in the middle of a product, EV, and global expansion push that may define the next decade for the company. We examine whether the sell-off is noise or a genuine entry point. Read here →

HDFC Bank’s Governance Ripple
A surprise leadership exit at HDFC Bank has sparked intense market scrutiny and questions regarding internal governance. To see how this transition could reshape your banking sector holdings, dive into the details. Read here →

ITC’s Quiet Reinvention
ITC rarely makes noise. But underneath the cigarette revenues, there’s a deliberate repositioning toward the premiumising Indian consumer FMCG, hospitality, and agri-tech that deserves more analytical attention than it gets. Read here →

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